Canucks powerplay hitting 26.8% efficiency but Pettersson anytime goal still +185 vs Kings

Those PP numbers are inflated by a couple blowout games against Arizona and Chicago. Strip out those outliers and Vancouver is back to league average around 21%. Pettersson's hot streak won't last - regression is coming and +185 is about right for a guy who's shooting well above his career norm.

Caught the Canucks-Oilers game last Friday at Rogers Place and Pettersson looked lethal on the PP. He had 3 quality looks from his office on the left circle and buried one on a perfect Hughes feed. The way he's finding space lately reminds me of his rookie season when he was picking corners consistently.

What stood out was how quickly Vancouver was setting up - they're getting shots off within the first 15 seconds of most powerplays instead of the usual cycle-fest. Miller has been much better at the entry too, which gives Pettersson cleaner looks. I actually hammered his anytime goal at MyStake for tonight's game because their odds seem slow to adjust to this recent form. The Kings defense gets scrambled when they're chasing the game, and if Vancouver gets an early lead, those PP chances multiply quickly.

Quick's glove side has been leaky too - saw him give up 2 goals there against Edmonton. If Pettersson gets his usual spot on the left dot, that +185 could cash by the second period.

Love this analysis! Been riding Canucks props lately and doing pretty well. Pettersson seems to have that magic touch right now. Even if the PP cools off a bit, he's still getting quality ice time and chances. Might throw a small unit on this one! 🏒

Checked the numbers across six books this morning and there's actually some interesting movement. Pettersson opened at +195 yesterday but has been bet down to +185 at most places. However, BetOnline still shows +192 as of 2pm PT, which suggests the sharp money isn't fully convinced yet.

The Kings allow 8.7 shots per game on the powerplay, which is actually below league average. Vancouver's recent PP surge coincides with facing some weaker penalty kills - Arizona (27th), Chicago (23rd), and San Jose (29th) were three of their last five opponents. Tonight they face a Kings PK that ranks 11th overall at 80.1%.

I'm seeing value in the Under 2.5 PP goals total for the game rather than individual props. Both teams have been more disciplined lately with fewer penalties called.

This might be a dumb question, but how do you factor in the goalie matchup when betting player props? I know Quick has been up and down, but does the backup Copley give up more goals to specific types of shots? Still learning how to read these situations properly.

The underlying metrics tell a different story than the raw PP%. Vancouver is averaging 1.8 high-danger chances per powerplay, which ranks 4th in the league, but their shooting percentage on those chances is 24.3% - well above the typical 12-15% you'd expect long-term.

Pettersson specifically is shooting 31% on PP attempts over this 12-game stretch compared to his career 16.8% on the man advantage. The volume is there (4.2 shots per 60 minutes of PP time), but the conversion rate screams regression.

Kings actually defend the slot well on the PK - they're allowing just 0.9 slot shots per penalty kill, which forces teams to beat them from the perimeter. Pettersson can certainly do that, but +185 might be accurately pricing in the degree of difficulty against LA's structured kill.