Canucks powerplay hitting 26.8% efficiency but Pettersson anytime goal still +185 vs Kings

Solid breakdown on the PP efficiency numbers. I've been tracking similar data and the Kings actually made a coaching change on their penalty kill system 8 games ago - brought in a new assistant specifically for special teams. Since then they're allowing 1.6 PP goals per game vs their season average of 2.3.

That said, Pettersson's shot volume on the powerplay at Rogers Arena is still elite - 4.2 shots per PP appearance at home. Even with improved Kings PK, volume usually wins out over small sample adjustments. The +185 does look generous when you factor in the 3+ penalty differential Vancouver typically gets at home.

Been having good success with Tonybet for these player props - their NHL lines tend to be sharp and they settle quickly after goals. Might be worth a unit on Pettersson anytime at those odds.

You're both missing the obvious red flag here - Pettersson's been dealing with that wrist issue for 3 weeks now. Sure, he's playing through it, but his one-timer release velocity is noticeably down from earlier in the season. Kings penalty kill coordinator specifically mentioned targeting his shooting lane in their pregame availability yesterday.

Plus Vancouver's been getting cute with their PP1 setup lately, moving Pettersson to the half-wall instead of his usual office in the slot. That 43% conversion rate you mentioned is skewed by a hot streak in November that's long over. Last 8 home games he's 2-for-11 on PP opportunities.

At +185 you're essentially betting on volume over current form. I'd rather take the under on total PP goals for the game at 1.5 - both teams have tightened up their special teams play significantly this month.

Disagree completely on the wrist concern - watched him in warmups last home game and his release looked fine. The real value might be in the game flow though.

Kings typically take early penalties when they're chasing, and Vancouver's been jumping to quick leads at home lately. First period penalty props might be the better angle here rather than full-game anytime goals.

Smart analysis on the efficiency trends, but I think you're undervaluing the Kings road penalty kill improvements. They've been much more disciplined with their stick positioning in the defensive zone, and their forwards are getting back quicker on turnovers.

That said, Pettersson's net-front presence during 5-on-4 situations has been elite all season. Even if his shot percentage dips, the rebound opportunities and deflection chances keep his goal probability higher than the +185 suggests. Vancouver also tends to get more favorable penalty calls at Rogers Arena - home cooking is real in the NHL.

I've been tracking these props closely on Rabona and their NHL player markets typically offer competitive odds with solid limits. Worth checking their anytime goal prices before committing to any book.

This is really helpful analysis! I'm still pretty new to hockey betting - when you mention PP1 unit ice time at 1:47 per advantage, is that good or bad compared to league average? And how do you track these penalty kill coaching changes?

Also wondering about timing - should I wait closer to puck drop for better odds or do these player props typically move the wrong direction as game time approaches?

Had a similar situation last month with McDavid props against Seattle where the numbers looked off. Ended up diving deep into the matchup data and found that Seattle had quietly improved their penalty kill structure over a 6-game stretch, but the books hadn't adjusted yet.

Placed the McDavid anytime goal bet anyway based on pure volume theory - guy was getting 6+ shots per game and the odds were +170. Sure enough, he scored twice including one on the powerplay, but it took until the third period. Sometimes the underlying numbers take time to show up in actual results, but over a large sample they usually do.

Point being, even if the Kings have tightened up their PK recently, Pettersson's shot generation rate and net-front positioning make +185 look generous. Vancouver's home powerplay setup creates so many second and third chances that individual defensive improvements often get overwhelmed by sheer opportunity volume.