Flames +285 to make playoffs but Kadri out 4-6 weeks with upper body injury

Those odds are dead money now. Kadri was carrying their second line and his 56% faceoff percentage is irreplaceable. The Pacific might look weak but Edmonton and Vancouver aren't going anywhere, and Vegas always gets hot down the stretch. Calgary was already on the bubble at 23-19-5, now they're looking at basically AHL depth down the middle for two months.

I've been tracking the Pacific standings and Calgary's underlying numbers weren't great even with Kadri healthy. Their 5v5 goal differential is -8 and they're getting outshot 31.2 to 29.7 per game. Kadri was masking some serious depth issues.

Looking at their schedule, they've got Edmonton twice, Vegas twice, and that Colorado/Dallas road trip you mentioned. Without Kadri's 18:30 TOI and penalty kill work, I'm seeing 4-7-0 as optimistic for that stretch. The market hasn't adjusted because casual money still sees "Flames playoff odds" without digging into the injury impact.

I grabbed them to miss at -240 on BetOnline right after the IR news broke. Their depth chart shows Ruzicka as the 2C replacement and he's been a healthy scratch half the season.

Everyone's writing off the Flames but Sutter's teams always find ways to grind out points when things get ugly. Kadri's loss hurts but Backlund can slide up to 2C and they've got enough veteran leadership to weather this. The Pacific is trash this year - look at Seattle and San Jose barely trying.

Had a similar situation back in '09 when I was tracking the Bruins before Bergeron came back from his concussion issues. The books were slow to adjust because they factor in "star player returns ahead of schedule" scenarios, especially with playoffs on the line.

But here's the thing with upper body injuries for centres - even when Kadri comes back, he might not be the same player immediately. Shoulder or wrist issues linger for skilled guys who rely on their hands. I watched Crosby struggle for months after his wrist surgery even though he was technically "healthy."

The Flames were already living on borrowed time with Markstrom stealing games. Their team save percentage is .901 which ranks 18th, and now they're asking him to be perfect while icing AHL centres. I'm staying away from the playoff odds but the under on their regular season point total looks decent. They opened at 91.5 and I think 85 points is more realistic without Kadri for two months.

Grabbed some action on their season point total under through Donbet at -115. Sometimes the market takes 48-72 hours to properly price in these injury impacts, especially when it happens mid-week.

Still learning the ropes here but doesn't Calgary have decent prospect depth? I keep hearing about this Pelletier kid and wasn't Coronato supposed to be their future? Maybe the injury gives these young guys a chance to step up and prove themselves. Sometimes teams play better when they're written off.

The prospects have potential but playoff races aren't development time. Pelletier has 7 points in 28 games and Coronato's been up and down from the AHL three times already this season. Neither guy can replace Kadri's defensive zone starts or his 19 powerplay points.

Looking at Calgary's remaining schedule strength of .523, they're facing teams that are all fighting for something. Even their "easy" games against Anaheim and Chicago come during back-to-backs where they'll be running short benches. The Flames needed every point they could get, and now they're basically punting 15% of their remaining season.

Vancouvervince nailed it on the defensive zone starts — Kadri was taking 62.4% of his faceoffs in the defensive end this season, which is massive for a team already allowing 3.2 goals per game. But here's what everyone's missing: Calgary's remaining schedule has them facing 8 teams currently in playoff positions over their final 23 games.

I've been tracking their underlying numbers since the Christmas break, and even with Kadri healthy, they were getting outshot 34.7 to 29.1 per game in January. The +285 looks generous until you realize they need to go roughly 15-8 just to have a shot at 95 points, and that's assuming Edmonton or Vancouver completely collapse.

The books on Cloudbet actually bumped Calgary to +320 about an hour after the injury news broke, which tells me the sharp action immediately recognized this kills their two-way game depth.