You're missing the obvious angle here - Patriots secondary is banged up with Jones and Peppers both questionable. Allen won't need to scramble if he's picking apart their coverage all afternoon. This screams passing game script to me.

Plus Belichick always schemes to take away what you do best. They'll spy Allen with Bentley or Wilson on every snap. Under 42.5 is free money.

Had a similar situation last month with the Mahomes rushing prop against Denver. Line opened at 28.5, dropped to 24.5 overnight, and I hammered the under thinking I was getting value. Mahomes ended up with 31 yards on just 4 carries - two designed keepers in the red zone that I never saw coming.

The thing with Allen is he's not just a scrambler, he's got those power runs at the goal line that can pad his numbers quick. I tracked his rushing attempts inside the 10 this season and he's averaging 2.3 carries per red zone trip. If Buffalo gets multiple scoring drives, those short yardage situations add up fast.

Weather factor is huge too. Remember that Dolphins game in December where it was 6°F? Allen ran it 12 times for 67 yards because they couldn't get anything going through the air early. BetOnline had his rushing total at 38.5 that day and it sailed over by halftime.

I'm leaning over 42.5 but waiting to see if it drops any further. Sometimes the sharp money is just wrong about game script.

Back in '22 I got burned on an Allen rushing prop in similar weather conditions. It was that wild card game against Miami - bitter cold, wind howling, and I took the over thinking he'd run more in the elements. Instead, Buffalo's offensive line dominated and Allen barely needed to scramble. He finished with 28 yards on just 6 attempts.

The lesson I learned that day was to look at the opposing defense's pass rush pressure rate. If the Patriots can't get consistent pressure, Allen stays in the pocket and throws. But if they're bringing heat, that's when you see the scrambles that push his rushing total over.

New England's been blitzing on 32% of dropbacks this season, which is middle of the pack. Not enough to force Allen out of his comfort zone consistently. I'm staying away from this prop - too many variables in a divisional game where both teams know each other inside and out.

Ran the numbers on Allen's rushing props this season and found something interesting. In games where Buffalo is favored by 7+ points (which they are this week at -8.5), Allen averages just 38.4 rushing yards. When they're in close games or underdogs, that number jumps to 52.1 yards.

Game script matters more than weather for mobile QBs. If the Bills build an early lead, they're not running Allen unnecessarily in Week 17. They'll hand it off to Cook and protect their franchise QB.

The sharp money on the under makes sense when you factor in the spread. MyStake has been consistent with their NFL props this season, and their 42.5 number aligns with the blowout scenario. I'm taking under 42.5 at -110.

Live bet this one instead. Allen's rushing yards props are notorious for wild swings based on first quarter game flow. If Patriots score early, you'll get better over numbers. If Bills jump ahead quick, hammer the under at better odds.

Analyzed Allen's rushing attempts by quarter this season and there's a clear pattern. He averages 1.8 attempts in Q1, 2.4 in Q2, 1.9 in Q3, and 2.1 in Q4. The second quarter spike usually comes from red zone situations or two-minute drill scrambles.

Patriots defense allows 6.2 yards per attempt to QBs in the second quarter specifically - their worst quarter for mobile QB containment. If Buffalo gets inside the 20 twice before halftime, Allen's hitting the over regardless of overall game script.

The 42.5 line feels like it's pricing in a comfortable Bills win where Allen doesn't need to extend plays. But divisional games are rarely that clean. I'm taking over 42.5 and betting it early before the number moves back up.

The 38.4 yard average in blowouts is the key stat here, but dig deeper on the attempts breakdown. Allen's attempt distribution that @winnipegjenny posted shows he's getting 8.2 total attempts per game, but in games where Buffalo leads by 14+ at halftime, that drops to 6.1 attempts. Patriots defense ranks 28th against QB scrambles, giving up 4.8 yards per attempt, but they've only faced 3 mobile QBs this season.

The real value might be the under at 42.5. Bills offensive coordinator has called 22% fewer designed QB runs in the final 4 games when they've had the division locked up. If this turns into a 21-3 halftime lead, Allen sits in the pocket and hands off to Cook for most of the second half.