Oilers powerplay efficiency at 31.2% but books still posting McDavid anytime goal at +165

You're overthinking this one. McDavid's goal prop reflects 5v5 scoring just as much as PP production. Seattle actually plays decent defensive hockey at even strength - they're middle of the pack in expected goals against. The +165 price factors in game script where Edmonton might be chasing if Kraken get an early lead.

I've been tracking similar inefficiencies and there's definitely value in Edmonton's special teams props right now. The market hasn't fully caught up to how dominant their PP1 unit has become since they moved Bouchard to the point full-time in November.

What's interesting is MyStake has been posting tighter numbers on McDavid's assist props (+105 for anytime assist vs +130 elsewhere) which suggests their traders are more aware of the powerplay correlation. I've been hitting McDavid assists and Draisaitl goals as a correlated parlay - when Edmonton's PP clicks, both guys usually get involved.

The 31.2% efficiency you mentioned is actually understating it because they've been at 38% over the last 10 games. Seattle's PK has also allowed 6 PP goals in their last 4 home games, so there's definitely a mismatch here that the market is slow to recognize.

This is exactly the kind of analysis that gets bettors in trouble. You're cherry-picking a hot streak and ignoring regression to the mean. Edmonton's powerplay was 28th in the league last season - you think they magically became elite overnight?

McDavid's goal scoring is also heavily matchup dependent. He has 2 goals in 6 games against Pacific Division teams this season compared to 12 goals in 11 games against Eastern Conference opponents. Seattle knows how to defend him - they've held him to 1 goal in 4 career meetings at Climate Pledge Arena.

Had a similar situation back in February when I was tracking Boston's powerplay during their 12-game home win streak. Pastrnak's goal props were sitting at +145 despite the Bruins converting at 34% over that stretch. I kept hammering those props thinking I found some magic formula.

Here's what I learned the hard way: special teams efficiency can flip overnight, especially on the road. Edmonton's powerplay looked unstoppable until they went 0-for-7 in that loss to Colorado two weeks back. McDavid went pointless that game despite 4 powerplay opportunities.

The books know something we don't about game flow. When I checked Donbet this morning, they had McDavid's shots on goal at 3.5 - that's telling me they expect a lower-event game where Edmonton doesn't get as many quality looks. Sometimes the eye test beats the spreadsheet, and Seattle's been playing tight checking hockey at home lately.

I'm not saying avoid the prop entirely, but maybe scale back the unit size. Those powerplay numbers look great until you hit a game where the refs swallow their whistles or Seattle takes an early lead and Edmonton chases for 40 minutes at even strength.

The math supports your read but you need to dig deeper into situational spots. McDavid's anytime goal percentage jumps to 71% in games where Edmonton scores first, compared to 42% when they're trailing after the first period.

Seattle's been getting quality goaltending from Grubauer lately - .924 save percentage over his last 8 starts. That's the real factor dragging down McDavid's implied probability, not the powerplay efficiency. Books are pricing in the possibility of a goalie stealing points, which happens more often in these Pacific Division matchups where teams know each other's systems.

I track cross-border numbers and the US books have McDavid at +155 for this same prop. That 10-cent difference tells you the Canadian market is slightly more bullish on Edmonton's road scoring. The powerplay angle is solid but don't ignore that Seattle's been much better defensively since they called up that kid Borgen from the AHL - their goals against dropped from 3.8 to 2.9 per game over the last two weeks.

Still think there's value at +165 given the special teams mismatch, but temper expectations if this turns into a grinding defensive battle. Sometimes the best powerplay in the world doesn't matter if you only get one opportunity all night.